Auger Aliassime vs Musetti: Who Will Finish Higher in the Rankings in 2026?

Two of the top candidates to add some minor drama to the love affair at the top of the sport, Felix Auger Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti, both secured wins in the ATP Finals in 2025.

But as we head into 2026, who has an easier path to stay at the upper echelon of the tour?

And how does the ATP points system (argueably the most unforgiving in all of professional sports) influence their journey?

The ATP Points system

First things first, how does any of this work? How do you get an ATP ranking, what does it mean? How do you move up and down the charts?

Well roughly, you get an ATP ranking when you score ATP points, which happens when you win an ATP-sanctioned match. The number of points you get for a win changes based on the tournament level and how far you make it into that tournament, more points for the tougher tournaments.

But what is so unforgiving about this? Well the catch is that you only keep your points from a match win for a single calendar year.

Your ranking is determined by how many points you have relative to everyone else on tour.
And your ranking determines your seeding in future tournaments...
which determines your draw... which determines you level of competition in the early stages of the tournament.

Again you might ask why these specifics matter because player who is better will finish higher on the rankings next year. Unforunately the season is long and messy, and you cannot expect players to be healthy and in peak form for every match.

The reality in this sport is that you only compete against the player across the net from you.
Having a higher ranking for more of the year, and therefore lower ranked opponents in the early rounds of tournaments, is a major factor in earning more points and keeping your ranking.

Luckily for Auger Aliassime and Musetti, they already completed the hardest part of moving up the rankings. The ATP scoring system serves to keep the top players at the top, keep them playing an obscene amount of matches every year, and keep the low rated players from ever making a run deep in tournaments. Big names sell tickets.

So where does that leave us?

Current Ranking Points Breakdown

As the season progresses, players have to defend the points they earned last season, and take every chance to earn points where they faltered last year.

Felix Auger Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti

FAA ended the year higher in the rankings, but is more vulnerable to drop down the rankings quick. His points come from deep runs across many hard court events, especially early in the season, but he has no clay/grass foundation. If he can't replicate the strong start to the year, he will have to deal with harder draws in the middle of the season, where he has the most chances to gain points on clay.

Musetti was a clay specialist last season. His 2,250+ clay points (French Open SF, 3x Masters 1000 deep runs) are impressive, and this success translated to the hard courts towards the end of the season. So if he can keep up that hard court form at the beginning of the year, Musetti has a real chance to jump up the rankings and have favorable draws to defend points (or even gain some) on clay.

My Prediction

The edge goes to: Musetti 🇮🇹.

One or two seeds higher in a 500 or 1000 tournament can mean all the difference when trying your best to avoid Sinner or Alcaraz. And thats honestly the current state of the ATP tour. I think with a strong start to the year Musetti can solidify a top 5 or 6 ranking and carry that into deep runs across the calendar. But tennis is unpredictable. One injury, one hot streak, or one upset can change everything.

Track Their Progress

Follow both players throughout 2026 on String Tension. Our live ELO ratings and ranking point breakdowns update after every match, so you can see exactly how their seasons unfold.

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Who do you think will finish higher? Let us know your prediction!