How Head-to-Heads Work (And How to Evaluate a Matchup)

Head-to-head records get thrown around a lot. "He's 4-2 against him." So what? The number alone doesn't tell you much. Here's how to actually evaluate a matchup.

What to Look At

Current form. Who's playing better right now? ELO ratings update after every match, so they're a decent snapshot. On our head-to-head pages, we show each player's recent results—last 20 matches—so you can see who's hot and who's not. A guy who's 0-5 in his last five is different from one who's 4-1, even if the overall H2H skews the other way.

Court conditions. Hard, clay, and grass play differently. Sinner and Alcaraz have faced each other on all three. On our head-to-head page you can see ELO by surface and wins by surface—so you can tell who's stronger on hard vs clay vs grass. A clay specialist can be 0-3 on hard and 3-0 on clay vs the same opponent—the raw "3-3" hides that.

Previous head-to-head. The history matters, but recency matters more. A win from 2022 isn't the same as a win from last month. Players change. Our match history table shows the full timeline so you can see the sequence, not just the tally.

Style clash. Some matchups are structural. Big server vs great returner. Aggressive baseliner vs counter-puncher. The stats comparison on our H2H page—serve %, first-serve points won, break point conversion—highlights where each player has an edge. You can toggle between season stats, career stats, and head-to-head stats to see how they perform specifically against each other.

Sinner vs Alcaraz

Sinner vs Alcaraz is the rivalry right now. Close H2H, similar age, different games. Sinner plays cleaner lines, flatter, more first-strike. Alcaraz mixes in more spin, drop shots, variety. The prediction tool on our head-to-head page uses ELO by surface—so if they're playing on hard court, it weights hard-court ELO. Clay or grass, same idea. The odds shift depending on where they meet.

You can also see each player's last 20 matches side by side. Useful for form. If Sinner just lost three straight and Alcaraz won his last two events, that context matters even if the H2H is 5-4.

Our Head-to-Head Tool

We built the head-to-head comparison to pull all of this into one place:

• Match prediction — ELO-based win probability by surface
• Match history — Full timeline with scores, rounds, surfaces
• Recent matches — Last 20 for each player, side by side
• Stats comparison — Season, career, or H2H-specific (serve, return, break points)

Pick any two players and run the comparison. Sinner vs Alcaraz is a good place to start.

Coming Soon: Matchup Research

We're building a deeper matchup research tool—a workspace where you can explore any rivalry with an AI assistant. It will prefill from our head-to-head data, then let you ask questions, add charts and tables, and pin insights to a shareable board. Think of it as a research dashboard: you pick the matchup, we surface the stats and narrative, and you build your own analysis. Stay tuned.